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20 May 2010

Mencius Moldbug o uzrocima krize

Najbolje objašnjenje krize 2008 koje sam ja do sada čitao. Autor naravno nije ekonomista, nego bloger-amater, po profesiji kompjuterski programer. Tekst je poduži, ali vredi čitati (ovde je još duži i detaljniji teorijski tretman problema). I onaj ko nikad ništa teorijski nije znao o ekonomiji, razumeće na kraju poentu. Iako imam neke manje tehničke prigovore, u celini gledano čovek je bolji "ekonomista" od svih "profesora" sa Ivy league fakulteta i Fed-a zajedno. Šopenhauer je jednom rekao da svaka stranica Dejvida Hjuma vredi više od svih Hegelovih i Šlajermaherovih sabranih dela zajedno. Dva Mencijusova blog posta po mom mišljenju vrede više u razumevanju ekonomskih kriza od svih udžbenika "makroekonomije" koji su ikad napisani zajedno. Evo samo dva kratka izvoda da vam podstaknem znatiželju:

the fundamental cause of the bank crisis is not evil Republicans, lying Democrats, "deregulation," "affirmative-action lending," or even "ludicrous levels of leverage." A banking system is like a nuclear reactor: a complicated piece of engineering. If it's engineered right, it works 100% of the time. If it's engineered wrong, it works 99.99% of the time, and the other 0.01% it coats the entire tri-state area in radioactive strontium.

Basically, imagine that there were two kinds of nuclear reactors - fission and fusion, perhaps. Fission reactors work 99.99% of the time. Fusion reactors work 100% of the time. The reason our society gets its power from fission reactors is that our reactor experts are fission experts. Therefore, we have resigned ourselves to having fission reactors, plus a large fleet of mobile power-washers to clean up the radioactive strontium every ten or twenty years. If you ask either the reactor engineers or the cleanup crews about the possibility of switching to fusion, the best answer you'll get will be something like "waah?"


Šta je "fisioni" reaktor, a šta "fuzioni"? Otkrijte sami. :)